Who Will be the Next PM of Nepal ?
Political Crossroads, Elections and the Future of Nepali Governance
Nepal is at a historic and important political crossroads. After years of changing alliances, protests, government instability, and public calls for change, the question “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Nepal?” goes beyond political speculation; it mirrors significant changes in Nepali society, governance, and democratic expectations. This article looks at the answers, covering historical background, the current interim period, major candidates, election outlook, and future possibilities for Nepali leadership.
A Nation’s Challenging Political History
Nepal’s political landscape has been characterized by frequent leadership changes and shaky coalition governments since the monarchy was abolished in 2008 and the country became a federal democratic republic. Often due to shifting alliances and intra-party rivalries rather than steady electoral mandates, the prime minister’s office has changed hands several times.
Communist leader Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli (KP Sharma Oli) was sworn in as prime minister for the fourth time by the middle of 2024, demonstrating the unpredictability and shifting leadership that define Nepali politics.
However, significant upheaval quickly replaced this political pattern.
2025 Protests: A Political Earthquake
Following government actions to outlaw social media platforms and growing complaints about corruption, unemployment, and stagnant governance, widespread protests broke out throughout Nepal in September 2025. The uprising, which was mostly spearheaded by young people in Nepal who are frequently referred to as “Gen Z,” was one of the biggest challenges to the political establishment in decades. Protests descended into violence, government buildings and parliament buildings were set on fire, and the political system was under unprecedented pressure.
In September 2025, KP Sharma Oli resigned as prime minister, ending his term and creating a power vacuum, as a result of efforts to restore order and political discourse.
Sushila Karki: Interim Prime Minister and First Woman Leader
During this time of unrest, there was an amazing political development: on September 12, 2025, the first female Prime Minister of Nepal, former Chief Justice Sushila Karki, was sworn in as the interim Prime Minister of Nepal.
Karki’s appointment is significant not only because she has broken through a glass ceiling, but also because it came about through a process that was endorsed by the youth protest leaders as well as other political forces who recognized her as a consensus leader to lead Nepal to stability.
With Karki in the position of interim Prime Minister, she proceeded to dissolve the House of Representatives and to call for new elections to be held on March 5, 2026.
The primary purpose of Karki’s interim government will be to maintain peace, bring back institutional functionality and facilitate the establishment of a democratically elected government. Therefore, her administration will not continue after the date of the election and will not serve as a full and complete long-term administration.
March 5, 2026 Elections: Setting the Stage for a New Government
The election period which begins on March 5 2026 will determine both the future political direction of Nepal and the selection of its subsequent prime minister. The House of Representatives has been dissolved which leads to new elections that will bring fresh electoral results making this election a crucial event for the nation. The process involves selecting new lawmakers who will restore political stability while establishing governance procedures for future years.
The electoral system in Nepal uses a mixed system to select members of its House of Representatives. The first-past-the-post (FPTP) electoral system lets voters choose between 165 candidates who will fill 275 seats because the winning candidate receives the most votes from each district. Political parties receive representation based on their total national vote count which determines all 110 remaining seats in the system of proportional representation. This hybrid model is designed to balance direct local representation with broader political inclusivity.
The formation of the government process begins after elections when the new House of Representatives is established. The party or coalition that obtains the most seats in the House will choose the Prime Minister according to Nepal’s parliamentary democratic system. The process of coalition formation which occurs after elections holds equal value to the results of the election process. The 2026 elections will determine both the composition of Parliament and the identity of Nepal’s next Prime Minister through their electoral outcomes.
Who Are the Major competitor?
The political landscape of Nepal has three major candidates who are on the race position of Prime Minister after the 2026 elections. Through their current political activities, potential Prime Minister candidates for the upcoming election can be identified according to existing political dynamics.
1. Gagan Thapa - Nepali Congress
In January 2026, the Nepali Congress (NC) – Nepal’s largest and traditionally influential democratic party – officially nominated Gagan Thapa as its candidate for Prime Minister in the upcoming political cycle.
Thapa’s candidacy shows the NC party has moved in a new direction while its members seek to institute new changes. Thapa who has historically been one of the most appealing leaders to young voters now serves as a candidate who will reach both traditional supporters and progressive citizens.
The Nepali Congress party uses his nomination as a strategic move to address public demands for new leadership, better governance, and fresh political solutions.
2. KP Sharma Oli - CPN-UML
The 2025 resignation of KP Sharma Oli under pressure did not weaken his political power which he maintains over the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist) (CPN-UML) party. The party’s organizational structure together with its dedicated supporters enables him to maintain political power through future coalition negotiations.
Oli’s desire to reclaim the position of prime minister remains uncertain because his political ambitions and party interests will influence upcoming negotiations. The CPN-UML functions as a major political power therefore their chosen candidate will compete seriously for victory.
3. Balen Shah - Rastriya Swatantra Party
The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) which operates as a new political organization because it emphasizes anti-corruption and innovative ideas and youth representation has selected Balen Shah to serve as its Prime Minister candidate.
Shah who people consider an outsider to standard party political systems stands for the increasing demand of people who want new leaders to replace established political authorities. The candidate attracts young Nepalis and urban voters who have grown tired of political delays that have lasted for several decades.
Possible Scenarios After Elections
Gagan Thapa may have an easier time becoming prime minister if the Nepali Congress (NC) wins a majority or even a clear plurality in the 2026 elections. Thapa, one of the party’s most well-known and reform-focused leaders, would probably be nominated for prime minister, particularly if NC is able to unite with smaller or ideologically similar regional parties.
In order to form a solid ruling coalition, he would need to be able to negotiate, create consensus, and win over younger and urban voters. In this case, NC might be able to defend his promotion to the top position by combining a reformist image with leadership continuity.
However, if elections produce a fragmented parliament with no party claiming a sufficient majority, the political scenario will turn to coalition building to facilitate government formation. Traditionally, the establishment of coalitions post-election is more important than the actual number of seats claimed.
The goal of the Nepali Congress is to form a broad-based coalition that would provide it with the necessary majority to become a government and place Gagan Thapa in the office of Prime Minister. CPN-UML is attempting to unite with other parties to form a common candidate, which would position them as a major player in forming the next government.
In the ongoing coalition scenario, there may also be significant impacts from new and smaller political parties, such as Balen Shah’s Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). With an adequate number of seats, the RSP could potentially become a key broker in forming the next government, as their support would likely come with expectations of receiving substantial policy reform, governmental transparency, and extensive influence in the governorship in the future.
Thus, in a fragmented parliament environment, the next Prime Minister will not necessarily be the candidate whose party finishes in first place, but rather the candidate(s) who devise successful coalition-building strategies that result in achieving effective control of the parliament.
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Another potential scenario for the elections is a surprise victory by a new independent candidate or third party due to increasing public dissatisfaction with traditional political representations. Should a newer party or group of independent candidates achieve significantly better than anticipated results, it could create chaos in the standard equilibrium between the major parties such as Nepali Congress and CPN-UML. A strong desire for change and reforms would indicate a significant shift in the electorate’s expectations and potentially cause a reduction in the traditional major parties’ hold on power in Parliament.
Nonetheless, even if such an event occurs, the parliamentary form of government in Nepal still requires the backing of a majority of Members of Parliament from the House of Representatives to establish a government. Therefore, regardless of the third-party or independent candidate’s successful performance, coalition negotiations among the different parties will still have to take place. In addition, there will be a major role for the independent or third party to play as a significant bargaining group in establishing the policy agenda and potentially selecting the Prime Minister if they play a key role in establishing a coalition government.
Consequently, while a surprise surge will not eliminate the necessity for coalition bargaining, it will increase the complexity and divisiveness of such negotiations in order to determine the identity of the next Prime Minister of Nepal.
What Matters Most: Governance and Public Expectations
The question of who will become Prime Minister focuses on the ultimate expectations which Nepali citizens have of their future leaders. The upcoming 2026 elections will function as a power competition between political factions while citizens use their votes to express opinions about how their country should be run and who should be held accountable. Voters are showing decreasing interest in well-known candidates because they want to see how the upcoming administration will handle existing problems and new demands from the public.
People demand that all forms of corruption should end because it remains one of their strongest public demands. The Gen Z protests which recently occurred demonstrated how people throughout the country reacted with extreme anger toward both corruption and the political system which protects politicians from facing punishment.
Young urban voters now expect clean governance to function as their standard requirement instead of a mere political campaign slogan. Any future prime minister whofails to take visible and credible action against corruption risks triggering renewed public unrest and further erosion of trust in democratic institutions.
The political agenda will focus on increasing youth engagement while creating new opportunities for young people. The young population of Nepal who makes up more than 30 percent of its total demographic represents the essential foundation which will shape the future of the nation. Voter behavior will be strongly influenced by issues which include job creation and entrepreneurship and innovation and digital transformation and political representation which matters to voters.
The organization which provides youth employment and inclusion through practical solutions will develop sustainable power which brings stability throughout its existence.
The organization needs institutional strengthening as an urgent requirement. The frequent changes in governmental power have caused state institutions to weaken and disrupted the implementation of policies which resulted in economic stagnation. Nepali citizens now demand that their government should maintain power for an extended period to implement essential reforms.
Constitutional and Structural Reform Debates
The governance system of Nepal requires fundamental changes according to some people who participate in leadership debates. The Constitution prohibits direct citizen elections for Prime Minister but the ongoing discussions show that people need better solutions to their political problems which exist in the current parliamentary system.
Nepal is currently under the leadership of Sushila Karki, who has assumed the position of interim Prime Minister as the nation transitions until future elections are conducted, and serves to provide insight into the definitive nature of the developing political climate in Nepal. The March 5, 2026, elections will be more than a simple democratic selection process; they will be pivotal to establishing Nepal’s future leadership and political path.
The competition for the next prime minister features several leading players, although the ultimate outcome is largely uncertain. Most observers anticipate that if the Nepali Congress does well, Gagan Thapa would likely be a major contender; on the other hand, KP Sharma Oli (or another candidate from the CPN-UML) would also remain at the forefront of Nepalese politics if CPN-UML were to reorganise itself and establish alliances with other parties.
Additionally, Balen Shah and other newly emerging political leaders will continue to change long-held political norms and create new power dynamics in Nepalese politics. Nepal’s track record of politically diverse results at the polls in the past, we are now seeing an increasing potential for more extensive coalitions and/or negotiations after elections to determine who goes on to become Prime Minister as opposed to being a single political party emerging as the ultimate victor.
In this regard, whoever takes on the responsibility of Prime Minister will represent much more than a traditional political leader. It is anticipated that whoever steps into this high profile position will be viewed as a representative of the overall aspirations of the nation moving forward with governance, democracy, and a more enlightened style of leadership. T
he new Prime Minister is entering office at a critical time in Nepal’s history, where the entire population will look to the new leaders to create a political environment where transparency exists, the government is stable, the economy is improving, and Nepal enjoys positive relationships with its neighbours and the rest of the world. To consider any leadership candidate’s name will not be sufficient; however, we will look for a leader who represents the collective will of the nation for all of these values, and therefore, all of these values will be incorporated into a broader mandate for the next Prime Minister of Nepal as a result of the desire of the Nepalese people for all these things.
